This page shows the past seasons of the College Football Playoff Eliminator.
(4 Team Eliminated, 129 Total Eliminated)
The 2023 College Football Playoff is here at last and not without its share of controversy. The theme of the 2023 season has been a relative lack of chaos as an unprecedented number of teams entered Conference Championship weekend with a shot at the playoff. Friday night saw Oregon fall for the second time this season to Washington, ending the Ducks’ playoff hopes. Saturday saw Alabama upset two-time, defending national champion Georgia. Michigan and Florida State both slogged through their respective conference championship games. That left Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Texas, and Washington with realistic playoff ambitions entering Selection Sunday. The CFP Committee ultimately selected Michigan, Washington, Texas, and Alabama as the four playoff participants, leaving Florida State out in the cold as the first undefeated, Power 5 conference champion to be left out of the playoff. As an Alabama graduate and fan, I’m not too heartbroken over this.
Florida State, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon
(1 Team Eliminated, 125 Total Eliminated)
Alabama played with fire, but managed to escape Auburn with a dramatic win. Ohio State’s loss puts it in a precarious position, but a path the playoff probably still exists. We say good-bye to the Louisville. The Cardinals are no longer playoff contenders, but can shake-up the playoff picture with a win over Florida State in the ACC Championship Game.
Louisville
(0 Teams Eliminated, 124 Total Eliminated)
For the first time this season, no teams were eliminated as the trend of limited chaos continues.
(2 Teams Eliminated, 124 Total Eliminated)
Two more teams are eliminated this week. We are down to the final nine teams that have at least some plausible shot at making the playoff. There has been relatively little chaos thus far this season. Will that continue or will we see our typical flurry of late season upsets that could throw the playoff picture into disarray?
Ole Miss and Penn State
(5 Teams Eliminated, 122 Total Eliminated)
The potential playoff field continues to dwindle as a few big names fall out of the chase. Eleven teams remain with a viable path to the top four.
Although Liberty remains undefeated, they did not appear in the first College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings. Even if they complete an undefeated season, their playoff hopes have come to an end. With Air Force’s loss, the Flames do have a shot at a New Year’s Six bowl appearance.
Air Force, Liberty, Oklahoma, LSU, and Missouri
(4 Teams Eliminated, 117 Total Eliminated)
Four more teams encountered the end of their College Football Playoff (CFP) road this week. This upcoming week is a pivotal one as the CFP Selection Committee will release their first ranking on Tuesday. The release of this ranking may be enough to eliminate a few teams from CFP contention. Why? Well, no team ranked lower than 16th in the first CFP rankings has ever made the playoffs (Ohio State in 2014). Air Force may (barely) make the cut, but it seems unlikely that Liberty will rank in the top 16 (they may not even make the top 25). We’ll address these teams in the next update.
Oregon State, North Carolina, Utah, and Wisconsin
(4 Teams Eliminated, 113 Total Eliminated)
We’re down to 20 teams! Our two Group of Five darlings remain alive this week in Air Force and Liberty. Air Force is comfortably in the Top 25 rankings and (as long as they keep winning) looking good for a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl. Liberty is getting little notice and remains outside of the Top 25.
Duke, Iowa, Tennessee, and USC
(9 Teams Eliminated, 109 Total Eliminated)
This week we move past the 100 team elimination mark. A total of 27 teams can make some claim (at least theoretically) to a path to a berth in College Football Playoff (CFP). Only two Group of Five teams remain: Air Force and Liberty. Realistically, these two teams are not likely to make an appearance in the CFP. It is more likely that they are contending for the Group of Five berth in the New Year’s Six bowls. One loss Tulane is also a contender for this berth, but has no conceivable path to the CFP.
BYU, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Texas A&M, UCLA, West Virginia, and Washington State
(7 Teams Eliminated, 100 Total Eliminated)
Only five teams are eliminated this week, but we are very close to the point in the season where we have to start being more realistic about the playoff chances of teams that are on the fringe of the playoff picture. We may eliminate teams that continue to win, but have no realistic hope of moving into the playoff discussion. This will become especially true when the first, official College Football Playoff rankings are released later in October.
Two of our Group of Five teams saw their (outside) chances of a playoff berth end with losses. Good-bye to Fresno State and Marshall.
This week, we bid farewell to two-loss Notre Dame. I was also close to eliminating Liberty this week after the Flames’ tepid win over Sam Houston State. On principle alone, I’m very tempted to dismiss Miami. They deserve it after their royal flub in end-game management.
Fresno State, Kansas State, Marshall, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Syracuse, and Wake Forest
(9 Teams Eliminated, 93 Total Eliminated)
This week we bid farewell to nine more teams with eight of victims being Power Five teams. Georgia State is only lone Group of Five squad to see the door slammed shut on its very narrow path to the College Football Playoff. Only four Group of Five teams remain in the conversation (admittedly their chances are extremely slim): Air Force, Fresno State, Liberty, and Marshall. Air Force and Fresno State do not meet in the regular season, but could both be undefeated heading to the Mountain West Championship Game. Fresno State continues to have the best resume out of the Group of Five teams with two wins over Power Five opponents.
LSU took its second loss of the season at Ole Miss, but I’m leaving them in contention for now as they retain a viable path to the SEC Championship Game. They have no margin for error at this point.
Arizona, Auburn, Colorado, Florida, Georgia State, NC State, South Carolina, TCU, and UCF
(10 Teams Eliminated, 84 Total Eliminated)
The Power Five teams are starting to “drop like flies” as second losses start to pile up. This includes “Little Ole Clemson”. Once a CFP regular, the Tigers are staring down a four or five loss season. Alabama hangs on for another week. Colorado is holding on by a thread after their devastating loss at Oregon. A beat down at home to USC next week would end Coach Prime’s hopes of a CFP berth in his first year in Boulder. I probably should have eliminated Nebraska earlier. Their two losses don’t look great after a couple more weeks of play. Virginia Tech probably should have been eliminated earlier, but they are definitely gone now.
Turning our attention to our friends from the Group of Five conferences, we see that only a handful of teams remain. We should probably be honest with ourselves about Group of Five teams at the moment. Fresno State is the highest ranked Group of Five team, just sneaking in to the AP Poll at Number 25 after this week’s games. That’s a lot of ground to make up to get to the Top 4. The Bulldogs have two wins over Power Five teams, but it’s hard to see a realistic path to the playoff. The playoff path for Georgia State, Liberty, and Marshall is even more narrow. We’ll keep these teams in until it becomes overwhelmingly obvious that they have no shot. Next year’s 12-team playoff guarantees access to the best Group of Five champion (yes, I’m already thinking about how to configure the Playoff Eliminator for next season).
Arkansas, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Memphis, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Nebraska, and Virginia Tech
(19 Teams Eliminated, 74 Total Eliminated)
Just three weeks in and over half of the teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) have seen their dreams of a National Championship thrown into the dumpster. This is the week where we start to see Power Five teams fall by the wayside. The trickiest part of this process is determining what to do with two-loss Power Five teams. The College Football Playoff has never has never had a two-loss team as a participant, but I’m convinced that a path for a two-loss team does exist. For example, if the 2022 Alabama team (two close losses to Tennessee and LSU) had been able to win the SEC West and then defeat Georgia in the SEC title game, they would have had a very compelling case for inclusion in the playoff. Are there teams in 2023 that could fit the very narrow profile of a two-loss playoff contender? Possibly. South Carolina seems like an interesting case as the (perhaps) best two-loss team in the country at this point. If they ran the table and made it into the SEC title game (would require at least two Georgia losses) they would be 10-2 with wins over Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Clemson. Would an SEC title game win over an LSU or Alabama be enough? I’m not sure, but it seems like at least a remote possibility.
Boston College, Colorado State, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Louisiana Monroe, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Stanford, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Western Kentucky, and Wyoming.
Note: In hindsight, Boston College, Colorado State, Texas Tech, and Virginia probably should have been eliminated before this week due to losses to Group of Five teams.
(18 Teams Eliminated, 55 Total Eliminated)
It’s my goal with this to never have to “un-eliminate” a team. I spent a bit of time trying to figure out what to do with Baylor. Would they be the first Power 5 conference team to be eliminated? I’m going to say “yes”. The Bears sit at 0-2 with the loss to Texas State still looming large.
UNLV, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Baylor, Troy, Appalachian State, SMU, Tulane, Western Michigan, Texas State, Northern Illinois, UAB, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana, Charlotte, Eastern Michigan, Temple, and San Diego State.
(26 Teams Eliminated, 37 Total Eliminated)
The pile of eliminated teams continues to grow this week. Kent State, UConn, Central Michigan, Miami (OH), East Carolina, Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Boise State, Rice, Buffalo, Arkansas State, New Mexico, South Alabama, Utah State, Ball State, Bowling Green, Louisiana Tech, Akron, UMass, South Florida, North Texas, Army, UTSA, Toledo, Old Dominion, and Coastal Carolina.
It was tempting to eliminate Baylor as a loss to Texas State is nearly unforgivable. If they ran the table and won the Big 12 would that be enough to overcome this stinker of a loss?
(7 Teams Eliminated, 11 Total Eliminated)
This week we say “good-bye” to: San Jose State, Navy, UTEP, New Mexico State, Ohio, FIU, and Hawaii. Gone, but not forgotten…
(4 Teams Eliminated, 4 Total Eliminated)
Each week we’ll update the graphic on the home page to reflect the “elimination” of teams from the College Football Playoff (CFP) race. For four teams, the race was over before it even started. In late August, Arizona State announced that it was self-imposing a bowl ban for the 2023 season. Given how bad Arizona State has been in recent years, this hardly seems like punishment (were they going to make a bowl game anyway?). They start the season eliminated.
Three teams are in transition from the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) to the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). James Madison is in its second and final year of this transition. There are some condition under which the Dukes could make a bowl game, but their journey to the 2023 CFP is over before it even has a chance to begin. Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State are in their first year of the transition process. They are also out of the CFP race.