This page shows the past seasons of the College Football Playoff Eliminator.
Week 15
Alabama, Iowa State, and UNLV
(3 teams eliminated)
(122 total eliminated)
Here we are. The end of the 2024 regular season* and conference championship games. We started with 134 teams. Each with a dream of being selected for the new 12-team College Football Playoff. One-by-one we eliminated 122 teams, only taking one mulligan (UNLV).
*Army/Navy is the final regular season game of the 2024 season.
Week 14
Army, Colorado, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, BYU, and Miami
(6 teams eliminated + 1 team restored)
(119 total eliminated)
We waited until the release of this week’s CFP Rankings and we are now down to 15 teams with viable paths to the CFP. Of these, 11 teams appear to be “Playoff Locks”: Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana (Big Ten), Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee (SEC), Notre Dame (Independent), SMU/Clemson Winner (ACC), Arizona State/Iowa Winner State (Big 12), and Boise State/UNLV Winner (Mountain West/Group of 5 Champion). That leaves one spot for an at-large team. Alabama, ranked 11th, is in the driver’s seat. If SMU defeats Clemson, then Alabama should be in. If Clemson wins to “steal a bid”, we’ll have to wait to see how far SMU falls in the final rankings.
There has been a lot of noise this week around teams like Miami and South Carolina. This week’s CFP Rankings seal their fate.
I had eliminated UNLV a few weeks ago as no two-loss Group of 5 team would have qualified for the 12-team playoff had it been in existence since 2014. However, here we are. UNLV is back in contention and needs only to beat Boise State to make a playoff appearance.
Week 13
No Eliminations This Week
(0 teams eliminated)
(114 total eliminated)
For the last few site updates I will be waiting until after the CFP Rankings are released each week as we are at a point in the season where eliminations may occur even if a team wins or does not play.
It felt like a lot happened this last week, but the CFP elimination scene is remarkably unchanged. In fact, I’m tempted to add Tulane and UNLV back into the list of non-eliminated teams as both may have something of a path to the playoff via a conference championship automatic bid. South Carolina was eliminated several weeks ago but is lurking.
Let’s talk about a few teams on the fringe. Army is about as close to elimination as humanly possible. They need some serious chaos to stay in the conversation. If UNLV beats Nevada to qualify for the Mountain West Conference championship game, Army will be eliminated as they will have no realistic path to the fifth automatic bid. Colorado will be eliminated if they fail to qualify for the Big 12 Championship game. However, there remains a real possibility of the Big 12 champion being shut out of the playoff altogether. Arizona State, BYU and Iowa State are in a similar, but less dire situation. Alabama and Ole Miss will need some chaos, but maybe not severe chaos to keep their fading playoff hopes alive.
This weekend will go a very long way in providing some final clarity.
Week 12
Kansas State, Louisiana, Louisville, LSU, Missouri, Pittsburgh, and Washington State
(7 teams eliminated)
(114 total eliminated)
We got a significant narrowing of the field this week including two non-Power 4 teams exiting the playoff discussion. Just 20 teams remain for the 12 slots in the newly-expanded format. Let’s do a quick conference roll call of the remaining contenders to see where we stand:
ACC: Clemson, Miami, and SMU. These three teams don’t play each other in the regular season, but Miami and SMU have the inside track to the ACC Championship Game.. Clemson has completed their conference play.
Big 10: Indiana, Penn State, Ohio State, and Oregon. Ohio State and Indiana face-off this upcoming weekend. An Ohio State win puts the Buckeyes on course for a rematch with Oregon in the Big 10 Championship Game.
Big 12: BYU, Arizona State, Iowa State, Colorado. The BYU/Arizona State game looks to be a critical one. The winner will likely face a resurgent Colorado in the Big 12 title game.
SEC: Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee. There a number of chaotic scenarios that could play out in the SEC. The most likely path to the SEC Championship Game at this point leads to Alabama playing the winner of Texas/Texas A&M.
Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish are still alive and should make the playoff with ease if they win out. Recall that Notre Dame cannot receive a First Round bye as those are reserved for conference champions.
Group of 5: Army and Boise State. We’re down to two Group of 5 contenders. Note that we eliminated Tulane in Week 3. Could they work their way back into the discussion if Army and Boise State implode?
Week 11
Cincinnati, Iowa, Minnesota, Syracuse, and Texas Tech
(5 teams eliminated)
(107 total eliminated)
Five more Power 4 teams are eliminated this week. We are down to only 27 teams with viable paths to the College Football Playoff. For some contrast, last year at this point only 9 teams remained in the hunt for the four-team playoff.
Week 10
Navy, Memphis, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Duke, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas, TCU
(12 teams eliminated)
(102 total eliminated)
The defending champions see their (already faint) hopes of a repeat snuffed out this week as more Power 4 teams are eliminated. Group of 5 teams Navy and Memphis see their dreams dashed. There are a hodgepodge of Power 4 teams with three losses that remain (in some way) in the race for their conference championship. It’s a bit tough to decide what to do with them, but it seems increasingly unlikely that they will be able to work their way into the playoff picture.
The Group of 5 race for the playoffs is down to: Army, Boise State, Louisiana, and Washington State. Boise State is in the driver’s seat here with Army not far behind. It’ll be interesting to see the distance between these two teams in the first College Football Playoff poll (released on November 5th). Army has played a weak schedule, but has a chance to earn a statement win on November 23rd against Notre Dame. Even that might not be enough to propel them ahead of Boise State.
Weeks 8 and 9
Georgia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Stanford, West Virginia, Houston, Arizona, Utah, UCF, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Michigan State, Washington, Maryland, Rutgers, Liberty, UNLV, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky, James Madison, UL Monroe, Northwestern, USC, North Texas
(25 teams eliminated)
(90 total eliminated)
More travel and a bout with COVID put me a bit behind on this update, so I’ll combine the updates for Week 8 and 9.
The list of Group of 5 teams with a shot at the playoff continues to dwindle as the last Conference USA team (Liberty) is eliminated with a shock loss to Kennesaw State. A whole host of Power 4 teams also see their playoff dreams evaporate. We’re entering crunch time with lots of “elimination” games on tap in the next few weeks. The first official College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday, November 5th (certainly the most notable event taking place that day).
Weeks 6 and 7
Florida State, California, NC State, North Carolina, Baylor, Kansas, Purdue, UCLA, Sam Houston, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, San Jose State, Oregon State, Mississippi State, Auburn, Coastal Carolina
(16 teams eliminated)
(65 total eliminated)
I was out-of-town last week for work, so I’ll combine the updates for Weeks 6 and 7.
At last! We say goodbye to several Power 4 conference teams! While several of these teams have long been eliminated from at-large contention, they still had some of a path to the playoff by winning their conference and being a top five conference champion. Those days have now passed. It might be worth taking a moment to see which Group of 5 teams have a path to the playoff. The list grows shorter by the day: Army, Navy, North Texas, Memphis, Liberty, Boise State, UNLV, Washington State (we’ll consider them as an Independent for this purpose), James Madison, UL Monroe, and Louisiana. Boise State is currently the highest ranked Group of 5 team with Army and Navy not far behind.
Week 5
Western Kentucky, Buffalo, Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Georgia State, Texas State
(6 teams eliminated)
(49 total eliminated)
We are oh so close to eliminating our first Power 4 conference teams. Teams like Florida State, Kansas, Houston, and Mississippi State are walking on thin ice and the ice is cracking beneath their feet. Why not eliminate them now? I’m taking a cautious approach to not eliminate Power 4 teams until they are mathematically incapable to winning their conference. I may need to adjust this approach in the future, but we’ll keep it for now to be consistent.
Week 4
East Carolina, South Florida, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Ohio, Bowling Green, Georgia Southern, Marshall, Appalachian State, Arkansas State
(10 teams eliminated)
(43 total eliminated)
We continue saying “Goodbye!” to a variety of Group of 5 teams that hit the two loss threshold. We are getting ever closer to being Power 4 teams joining the ranks of the eliminated. Once a Power 4 team falls far enough back to be eliminated from conference championship contention, we can safely cast them aside. For some teams (even pretty bad teams) this may take awhile.
Week 3
Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, UTSA, New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee, Florida International, UConn, Miami (OH), Central Michigan, Air Force, Colorado State, Hawai’i, San Diego State, Utah State, Southern Miss
(17 teams eliminated)
(33 total eliminated)
This week we bid farewell to another set of Group of 5 teams as they pass over the bridge to two losses. While these teams could, technically, still win their conference, it seems unlikely that there would not be a better Group of 5 champion ranked above them. What about three loss Power 4 teams (e.g., Florida State)? These teams have not been mathematically eliminated from conference championship contention. However, as these teams compile more and more losses it seems exceedingly likely that, even if they won their conference, that a Group of 5 conference champion could pass them. Recall that no conference (not even the SEC and Big Ten) have an automatic berth in the playoff. Rather, the top five conference champions (from any conference) gain automatic entry into the playoff.
Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Temple, Jacksonville State, UTEP, Massachusetts, Akron, Kent State, Western Michigan, New Mexico, Wyoming, Nevada, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Troy
(15 teams eliminated)
(16 total eliminated)
The culling begins. It seems incredibly unlikely that the committee will award at-large bids to two loss non-Power 4 teams. Several teams hit this two loss threshold this week. UMass is an interesting case with both Missouri and Georgia left on the schedule. Would winning out and winning those two big games be enough? Probably not.
Kennesaw State
(1 team eliminated)
(1 total eliminated)
This week we say goodbye to the Football Subdivision’s newest member, Kennesaw State. As we noted in the Preseason analysis, Kennesaw is not eligible to win the Conference USA title. Their only path to the College Football Playoff would have been via an at-large berth (given to the top seven non-conference champions). The Owls Week 1 loss to UTSA ends those hopes.
A few other teams are teetering on the edge of the precipice (I’m looking at you New Mexico, UMass, and UConn). One more loss for UMass and UConn should send them sliding over the edge.
(No Teams Eliminated)
Each week we’ll update the graphic on the home page to reflect the “elimination” of teams from the College Football Playoff (CFP) race.
I was ready to eliminate Kennesaw State (the newest member of the Football Bowl Subdivision) as new teams are typically ineligible for the postseason (with some exceptions) due to their transition period. While Kennesaw is bowl-eligible (if there are not enough teams available to fill the available bowl slots), Kennesaw is not eligible to win the Conference USA title. This precludes them from being a potential automatic CFP qualifier.
CFP spots are available to the five highest-ranked conference champions. Presumably, this will be the four power conference champions (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC) plus the highest ranked Group of Five champion. Kennesaw State’s only path (highly implausible, but not completely impossible) is to be selected as one of the seven at-large teams. We’ll leave Kennesaw State as a “not eliminated” team for the moment, but a single loss will be enough to remove them from contention.
(4 Team Eliminated, 129 Total Eliminated)
The 2023 College Football Playoff is here at last and not without its share of controversy. The theme of the 2023 season has been a relative lack of chaos as an unprecedented number of teams entered Conference Championship weekend with a shot at the playoff. Friday night saw Oregon fall for the second time this season to Washington, ending the Ducks’ playoff hopes. Saturday saw Alabama upset two-time, defending national champion Georgia. Michigan and Florida State both slogged through their respective conference championship games. That left Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Texas, and Washington with realistic playoff ambitions entering Selection Sunday. The CFP Committee ultimately selected Michigan, Washington, Texas, and Alabama as the four playoff participants, leaving Florida State out in the cold as the first undefeated, Power 5 conference champion to be left out of the playoff. As an Alabama graduate and fan, I’m not too heartbroken over this.
Florida State, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon
(1 Team Eliminated, 125 Total Eliminated)
Alabama played with fire, but managed to escape Auburn with a dramatic win. Ohio State’s loss puts it in a precarious position, but a path the playoff probably still exists. We say good-bye to the Louisville. The Cardinals are no longer playoff contenders, but can shake-up the playoff picture with a win over Florida State in the ACC Championship Game.
Louisville
(0 Teams Eliminated, 124 Total Eliminated)
For the first time this season, no teams were eliminated as the trend of limited chaos continues.
(2 Teams Eliminated, 124 Total Eliminated)
Two more teams are eliminated this week. We are down to the final nine teams that have at least some plausible shot at making the playoff. There has been relatively little chaos thus far this season. Will that continue or will we see our typical flurry of late season upsets that could throw the playoff picture into disarray?
Ole Miss and Penn State
(5 Teams Eliminated, 122 Total Eliminated)
The potential playoff field continues to dwindle as a few big names fall out of the chase. Eleven teams remain with a viable path to the top four.
Although Liberty remains undefeated, they did not appear in the first College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings. Even if they complete an undefeated season, their playoff hopes have come to an end. With Air Force’s loss, the Flames do have a shot at a New Year’s Six bowl appearance.
Air Force, Liberty, Oklahoma, LSU, and Missouri
(4 Teams Eliminated, 117 Total Eliminated)
Four more teams encountered the end of their College Football Playoff (CFP) road this week. This upcoming week is a pivotal one as the CFP Selection Committee will release their first ranking on Tuesday. The release of this ranking may be enough to eliminate a few teams from CFP contention. Why? Well, no team ranked lower than 16th in the first CFP rankings has ever made the playoffs (Ohio State in 2014). Air Force may (barely) make the cut, but it seems unlikely that Liberty will rank in the top 16 (they may not even make the top 25). We’ll address these teams in the next update.
Oregon State, North Carolina, Utah, and Wisconsin
(4 Teams Eliminated, 113 Total Eliminated)
We’re down to 20 teams! Our two Group of Five darlings remain alive this week in Air Force and Liberty. Air Force is comfortably in the Top 25 rankings and (as long as they keep winning) looking good for a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl. Liberty is getting little notice and remains outside of the Top 25.
Duke, Iowa, Tennessee, and USC
(9 Teams Eliminated, 109 Total Eliminated)
This week we move past the 100 team elimination mark. A total of 27 teams can make some claim (at least theoretically) to a path to a berth in College Football Playoff (CFP). Only two Group of Five teams remain: Air Force and Liberty. Realistically, these two teams are not likely to make an appearance in the CFP. It is more likely that they are contending for the Group of Five berth in the New Year’s Six bowls. One loss Tulane is also a contender for this berth, but has no conceivable path to the CFP.
BYU, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Texas A&M, UCLA, West Virginia, and Washington State
(7 Teams Eliminated, 100 Total Eliminated)
Only five teams are eliminated this week, but we are very close to the point in the season where we have to start being more realistic about the playoff chances of teams that are on the fringe of the playoff picture. We may eliminate teams that continue to win, but have no realistic hope of moving into the playoff discussion. This will become especially true when the first, official College Football Playoff rankings are released later in October.
Two of our Group of Five teams saw their (outside) chances of a playoff berth end with losses. Good-bye to Fresno State and Marshall.
This week, we bid farewell to two-loss Notre Dame. I was also close to eliminating Liberty this week after the Flames’ tepid win over Sam Houston State. On principle alone, I’m very tempted to dismiss Miami. They deserve it after their royal flub in end-game management.
Fresno State, Kansas State, Marshall, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Syracuse, and Wake Forest
(9 Teams Eliminated, 93 Total Eliminated)
This week we bid farewell to nine more teams with eight of victims being Power Five teams. Georgia State is only lone Group of Five squad to see the door slammed shut on its very narrow path to the College Football Playoff. Only four Group of Five teams remain in the conversation (admittedly their chances are extremely slim): Air Force, Fresno State, Liberty, and Marshall. Air Force and Fresno State do not meet in the regular season, but could both be undefeated heading to the Mountain West Championship Game. Fresno State continues to have the best resume out of the Group of Five teams with two wins over Power Five opponents.
LSU took its second loss of the season at Ole Miss, but I’m leaving them in contention for now as they retain a viable path to the SEC Championship Game. They have no margin for error at this point.
Arizona, Auburn, Colorado, Florida, Georgia State, NC State, South Carolina, TCU, and UCF
(10 Teams Eliminated, 84 Total Eliminated)
The Power Five teams are starting to “drop like flies” as second losses start to pile up. This includes “Little Ole Clemson”. Once a CFP regular, the Tigers are staring down a four or five loss season. Alabama hangs on for another week. Colorado is holding on by a thread after their devastating loss at Oregon. A beat down at home to USC next week would end Coach Prime’s hopes of a CFP berth in his first year in Boulder. I probably should have eliminated Nebraska earlier. Their two losses don’t look great after a couple more weeks of play. Virginia Tech probably should have been eliminated earlier, but they are definitely gone now.
Turning our attention to our friends from the Group of Five conferences, we see that only a handful of teams remain. We should probably be honest with ourselves about Group of Five teams at the moment. Fresno State is the highest ranked Group of Five team, just sneaking in to the AP Poll at Number 25 after this week’s games. That’s a lot of ground to make up to get to the Top 4. The Bulldogs have two wins over Power Five teams, but it’s hard to see a realistic path to the playoff. The playoff path for Georgia State, Liberty, and Marshall is even more narrow. We’ll keep these teams in until it becomes overwhelmingly obvious that they have no shot. Next year’s 12-team playoff guarantees access to the best Group of Five champion (yes, I’m already thinking about how to configure the Playoff Eliminator for next season).
Arkansas, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Memphis, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Nebraska, and Virginia Tech
(19 Teams Eliminated, 74 Total Eliminated)
Just three weeks in and over half of the teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) have seen their dreams of a National Championship thrown into the dumpster. This is the week where we start to see Power Five teams fall by the wayside. The trickiest part of this process is determining what to do with two-loss Power Five teams. The College Football Playoff has never has never had a two-loss team as a participant, but I’m convinced that a path for a two-loss team does exist. For example, if the 2022 Alabama team (two close losses to Tennessee and LSU) had been able to win the SEC West and then defeat Georgia in the SEC title game, they would have had a very compelling case for inclusion in the playoff. Are there teams in 2023 that could fit the very narrow profile of a two-loss playoff contender? Possibly. South Carolina seems like an interesting case as the (perhaps) best two-loss team in the country at this point. If they ran the table and made it into the SEC title game (would require at least two Georgia losses) they would be 10-2 with wins over Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Clemson. Would an SEC title game win over an LSU or Alabama be enough? I’m not sure, but it seems like at least a remote possibility.
Boston College, Colorado State, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Louisiana Monroe, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Stanford, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Western Kentucky, and Wyoming.
Note: In hindsight, Boston College, Colorado State, Texas Tech, and Virginia probably should have been eliminated before this week due to losses to Group of Five teams.
(18 Teams Eliminated, 55 Total Eliminated)
It’s my goal with this to never have to “un-eliminate” a team. I spent a bit of time trying to figure out what to do with Baylor. Would they be the first Power 5 conference team to be eliminated? I’m going to say “yes”. The Bears sit at 0-2 with the loss to Texas State still looming large.
UNLV, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Baylor, Troy, Appalachian State, SMU, Tulane, Western Michigan, Texas State, Northern Illinois, UAB, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana, Charlotte, Eastern Michigan, Temple, and San Diego State.
(26 Teams Eliminated, 37 Total Eliminated)
The pile of eliminated teams continues to grow this week. Kent State, UConn, Central Michigan, Miami (OH), East Carolina, Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Boise State, Rice, Buffalo, Arkansas State, New Mexico, South Alabama, Utah State, Ball State, Bowling Green, Louisiana Tech, Akron, UMass, South Florida, North Texas, Army, UTSA, Toledo, Old Dominion, and Coastal Carolina.
It was tempting to eliminate Baylor as a loss to Texas State is nearly unforgivable. If they ran the table and won the Big 12 would that be enough to overcome this stinker of a loss?
(7 Teams Eliminated, 11 Total Eliminated)
This week we say “good-bye” to: San Jose State, Navy, UTEP, New Mexico State, Ohio, FIU, and Hawaii. Gone, but not forgotten…
(4 Teams Eliminated, 4 Total Eliminated)
Each week we’ll update the graphic on the home page to reflect the “elimination” of teams from the College Football Playoff (CFP) race. For four teams, the race was over before it even started. In late August, Arizona State announced that it was self-imposing a bowl ban for the 2023 season. Given how bad Arizona State has been in recent years, this hardly seems like punishment (were they going to make a bowl game anyway?). They start the season eliminated.
Three teams are in transition from the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) to the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). James Madison is in its second and final year of this transition. There are some condition under which the Dukes could make a bowl game, but their journey to the 2023 CFP is over before it even has a chance to begin. Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State are in their first year of the transition process. They are also out of the CFP race.