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College Football Playoff Eliminator
Who’s in. Who’s out. Why — explained clearly, updated weekly.
Hi, I’m Stephen Hill
Professor • Sports analytics nerd • Maker of CFP Eliminator
I built CFP Eliminator to track CFP eligibility and eliminations week by week in the new 12-team era. The goal: concise updates you can skim on mobile without the hype.
Welcome to the College Football Playoff Eliminator! Beginning with the 2023 college football season, we have been tracking which teams have been eliminated from College Football Playoff (CFP) contention.
The 12 team playoff format will shake up the elimination process and completely re-write any “rules of thumb” that we could use to identify eliminated teams from four team playoff era. Join us as we venture into this new reality and do our best to eliminate the unworthy and retain teams that have a shot at postseason glory!
The 12 Team Playoff
The 12 team version of the CFP will be populated by teams via two methods:
- The five highest ranked (in the CFP rankings) conference champions will receive entry into the CFP.
- The next seven highest ranked teams will also receive bids to the CFP.
As of 2025, the teams are seeded via a “straight seed” approach with the top four seeds (conference champions or not) receiving byes to the quarterfinals.
How Does the College Football Playoff Eliminator Work?
The 12-team College Football Playoff gives each Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) team two possible paths to the postseason:
Automatic Bids
The five highest-ranked conference champions automatically qualify for the CFP.
For teams in the Power 4 (P4) conferences (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12): → Win your conference and you’re in — even with three losses. When we look at the 2024 12 team playoff and the hypothetical 12 team playoffs from 2014 through 2023, only one P4 conference champion (Oregon in the 2020 COVID season) would have missed the playoff. To be clear, the SEC, the Big Ten, the ACC, and Big 12 do NOT have automatic bids to the CFP, but will almost always send their champion to the playoff.
For Group of 5 (G5) teams (AAC, Sun Belt, C-USA, Mountain West, MAC): → The highest-ranked G5 champion receives an automatic bid to the CFP.
Independent teams like Notre Dame cannot earn an automatic bid.
At-Large Bids
The seven remaining spots in the CFP are awarded to the highest-ranked teams that didn’t win their conference. The at-large path for teams from the P4 conferences is very different than for teams from the G5 conferences. For P4 teams:
- 0–1 losses: historically a near-lock for at-large selection.
- 2 losses: still very possible if ranked in the Top 10–12 of the final CFP rankings.
- 3 losses: 14 P4 teams since 2014 would have made the playoffs with at-large bids.
- 4+ losses: No P4 team with four or more losses would have ever made the playoff as an at-large team. Is it possible? Maybe, but unlikely.
For G5 teams, the path to an at-large bid is very narrow. No G5 team has or would have made the CFP with an at-large bid. An undefeated G5 team with a strong strength of schedule could be in the mix for an at-large bid.
We need to take a moment to address the special case that is Notre Dame. Notre Dame is independent and cannot get an automatic bid. However, they are treated like a P4 team for at-large access to the CFP.
Summary
A team is mathematically/effectively eliminated when:
Automatic bid path is gone: The team cannot reach its conference championship or the team will not be able to be ranked high enough to finish in the top five conference champions.
AND
At-large path is unrealistic:
Power 4: 4+ losses or too far outside CFP Top 12 as rankings are revealed.
Group of 5: no chance to be the highest-ranked G5 champion.
Notre Dame: Treated as a P4 team for at-large consideration.
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